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Earnings Trades to Consider This Week

April 14th, 2015

By John Scherr, Founder, WhisperNumber.com

Many of you may not be familiar with WhisperNumber or what we do as we have only recently partnered with eSignal. So a quick background overview may be in order. Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing crowd-sourced estimates for earnings. These earnings expectations are called whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site.

We’ve created a special subset of our database called Whisper Reactors. These companies are based on analysis of our proprietary whisper number database over the past fifteen years. These Reactors have a high probability of positive price movement following an earnings report when they beat the whisper number, and negative price movement when they miss the whisper number.

You can visit our website to learn more, but let’s get into the earnings alerts you can find in our premium eSignal app this week.

American Express (AXP)

American Express (AXP) is expected to report earnings on Thursday, April 16th, after market close. The whisper number is $1.34, two cents behind the analysts’ estimate and showing no confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Whispers range from a low of $1.20 to a high of $1.45. Amex has a 53% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 21 of the 40 earnings reports for which we have data).

The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in three of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year the company reported earnings six cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a minimal gain in five trading days. Last quarter the company reported earnings in-line with the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 7.6% loss in twenty trading days.

Amex qualifies as a whisper reactor with a 75% earnings reaction accuracy (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see weakness). If the company reports earnings that top the whisper number, the strongest average price movement of +6.1% comes within ten trading days. If the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number, the strongest average price movement of -6.7% comes within fifteen trading days.

We’ll issue an alert for Amex on Friday morning with appropriate price movement and timeframe information.

Schlumberger (SLB)

Schlumberger (SLB) is expected to report earnings on Thursday, April 16th, after market close. The whisper number is $0.94, two cents ahead of the analysts’ estimate and showing some confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Whispers range from a low of $0.90 to a high of $1.04. Schlumberger has a 62% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 21 of the 34 earnings reports for which we have data).

The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in two of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year the company reported earnings two cents short of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a minimal gain in five trading days. Last quarter the company reported earnings six cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 12.2% gain in thirty trading days.

Schlumberger qualifies as a whisper reactor with a 73% earnings reaction accuracy (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see weakness). If the company reports earnings that top the whisper number, the strongest average price movement of +4.8% comes within twenty-five trading days. If the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number, the strongest average price movement of -5.9% comes within twenty-five trading days.

We’ll issue an alert for Schlumberger on Friday morning with appropriate price movement and timeframe information.

Delta Air Lines (DAL), Higher Risk Momentum Reactor

So far we’ve highlighted two ‘classic’ reactors, but there is another type called ‘momentum’ reactors. The momentum reactors are more influenced by current major market movement/volatility as they are based on analysis of just the past five earnings quarters (classic reactors are based on the past four years of earnings.)

Momentum reactor Delta Air Lines (DAL) is expected to report earnings on Wednesday, April 15th, before market open. The whisper number is $0.44, in-line with the analysts’ estimate and showing neutral confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Delta has an 80% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 12 of the 15 earnings reports for which we have data).

The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in three of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year the company reported earnings three cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a minimal loss in five trading days. Last quarter the company reported earnings three cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 7.6% gain in five trading days.

Delta qualifies as a momentum reactor with a 100% earnings reaction accuracy (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see weakness). If the company reports earnings that top the whisper number, the strongest average price movement of +13% comes within thirty trading days. If the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number, the strongest average price movement of -0.5% comes within ten trading days.

We’ll issue an alert for Delta on Wednesday morning with appropriate price movement and timeframe information.

Additional alerts will also be issued this week for JNJ, PNC, and C. Next week we’ll issue alerts for FITB, NTRS, ABT, MCD, ALTR, BAX, DOW, LUV, UNP, STT and more. The expected price reaction and timeframe data for these tickers can be found in our app on the eSignal platform. Trading on whispers is a technical play on market psychology, rather than a bet on a company’s fundamental strengths. No ‘secret formulas’, no hidden claims, no small print. Just time tested analysis of our proprietary database of whisper numbers to find only the best stocks in the best industries to profit from each earnings season.

Leveraging eSignal 12.1

WhisperNumber’s Whisper Reactors data can now be found on eSignal 12.1. By harnessing this software platform, users can access real-time whisper number data and alerts, which can be combined with eSignals large amount of both technical and fundamental analysis.

About the Author

Since founding WhisperNumber.com over 15 years ago, John Scherr has created the most powerful and comprehensive database of crowd-sourced earnings expectations available to the financial industry. He is a leading expert on whisper numbers and post earnings price reaction analysis, and he is widely featured in financial print and television media. John appears regularly on Fox Business television discussing the power of whisper number expectations. He created the business to help level the playing field for individual investors and traders. WhisperNumber’s proprietary data has been proven through numerous independent academic studies to provide greater returns when used as an investment vehicle, and as having a greater impact on stock movement than analysts consensus estimates.